By Maneesh Dangi · August 2026
India was among the most favoured markets in global finance for much of the past decade, yet it has not delivered over the last two years. The Nifty is roughly flat-to-down over this period — an unremarkable outcome to seasoned practitioners, but a jarring one for the many newer investors who had been promised rich gains from Indian equity. This note sets out my view on why India underperformed, how the macro backdrop has genuinely shifted, what the last quarter tells us about both, and what we should realistically expect from the market over the next five to ten years. It is a considerably less pessimistic view than the one I have argued for over the past few years — though still far from optimistic for those who continue to perpetuate the India-exceptionalism narrative.
This note is best read as an outsider’s view. I don’t approach markets in the traditional, bottom-up sense. I wear two hats — a macro and policy hat, from my background in rates trading, and a credit-market hat, from what I do for a living today. What follows is simply a different lens on markets — one I have used reliably over the years to compound returns. Decently well.
In this note
- Part One — Why India didn’t deliver: two years of flat returns; the world no longer gives India a growth premium; growth is still 6–7% — not the source of the disappointment.
- Part Two — How the macro is different now: a 2013 moment without 2013’s causes; the US real rate has genuinely re-rated; America’s tribute-system doctrine; political power transition; the AI trade; India as a dual-engine economy inside a deglobalizing world.
- Part Three — Last quarter: Q1FY27 — has the tide turned?
- Part Four — Returns for the next five to ten years: putting a number on it.
